Markets Are No Longer Ignoring Geopolitics—They’re Repricing It

Amundi’s latest weekly note suggests 2026 has shifted into a regime of what they call “controlled disorder,” where geopolitics is no longer background noise but an active market driver. 

• The report highlights how the Middle East conflict triggered a sharp rise in energy prices, pushing equities lower and bond yields higher across regions.
• Interestingly, markets are currently more focused on inflation risks than growth risks, pricing in aggressive central bank responses—even as underlying growth may deteriorate if energy prices stay elevated.
• Performance has diverged: Europe, Japan, and parts of emerging markets have held up better than the U.S., particularly among energy-importing economies that were already stretched.

The takeaway is subtle: this is no longer a synchronized market. It is a fragmented one, where geography matters again.